Roki Sasaki was named MLB’s No. 1 prospect by Baseball America and MLB Pipeline this week. That means his $6.5 million sweetheart deal just got even better for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Because both of these media outlets have chosen to list Sasaki as a legitimate prospect, the Dodgers can officially receive a significant draft pick if Sasaki makes the Opening Day roster (or is promoted within the first two weeks of the season) and won the Rookie of the Year award. place in the top 3 in MVP or Cy Young voting in any of the next three seasons.
Sasaki is currently BetMGM’s favorite to win the 2025 NL Rookie of the Year award with odds of +200.
This is all due to MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI), the program instituted in the last collective bargaining agreement to discourage teams from playing the service time game with their top prospects. A player is eligible for his team’s draft selection if he a) is eligible as a rookie at the start of the season, b) accumulates a nearly full season of service time, and c) appears on at least two top 100 lists . from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and ESPN.
For example, the Kansas City Royals will pick 28th overall, the first pick after the first round, in the 2025 MLB Draft because star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. finished in the top 3 in voting AL MVP last year.
There is an exception that excludes “foreign professionals” from eligibility, but this only applies if they are 25 years or older. Sasaki is 23 years old, which means he is for all intents and purposes just another player under a minor league contract, which is why MLB teams could only offer him a fraction of his value on the free market in free agency.
There has been speculation that potential media outlets may have chosen not to rank Sasaki given that he is not a traditional prospect. However, he was officially signed as an international amateur free agent, although he played professionally for five years.
Obviously, the Dodgers aren’t complaining. They have had nothing to complain about all offseason.
Who could challenge Roki Sasaki for NL Rookie of the Year?
Just behind Sasaki on the BetMGM odds board is Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Crews, the second overall pick in the 2023 draft who made his MLB debut late last season. His odds stand at +400 and he is ranked by MLB Pipeline as the No. 4 prospect in baseball.
Chicago Cubs shortstop Matt Shaw, MLB Pipeline’s No. 19 prospect, is also at +400. While he doesn’t have quite the prospect pedigree of Crews, he has an open window to be his team’s starting third baseman on Opening Day.
The odds jump after these first 3, with Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Bubba Chandler at +1000 and Arizona Diamondbacks shortstop Jordan Lawlar at +1400.
And just in case you’re curious, Sasaki is +5000 to win the 2025 NL Cy Young Award.
The Dodgers farm system remains one of the best in baseball
Sasaki being ranked first overall among prospects is no surprise: he can easily hit 100 mph with his fastball, his splitter is considered one of the best pitches in the world and he held a 2.02 ERA at the Japanese NPB. The only real concern about him is his health.
It remains staggering, however, that he is just one of six Dodgers in Pipeline’s Top 100, despite the team not having had a top-20 draft pick since 2016 and not having a pick among the top 10 draft picks since Clayton Kershaw in 2006.
Behind Sasaki are catcher Dalton Rushing at No. 30, outfielder Josue De Paula at No. 40, pitcher Jackson Ferris at No. 71, shortstop Alex Freeland at No. 72 and outfielder Zyhir Hope at No. °75.
For perspective, those six prospects are as many as the rest of the NL West combined. That’s what a decade in which you devote more resources to scouting and player development than any other team will bring you.